How to give Blair a bloody nose--from The New Statesman

Monday 11th April 2005

The NS guide to tactical voting-

You are a disgruntled Labour voter. You opposed the Iraq war, and the Prevention of Terrorism Act. You probably disliked foundation hospitals and top-up fees as well. You would like to weaken Tony Blair and you would probably prefer Gordon Brown as prime minister.

But though you can stomach the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru or the Scottish National Party, you don't want to risk strengthening the Tories in any way. Nor do you want to penalise Labour MPs who, for example, voted against the Iraq war. And you would quite like to keep in the Commons as many Brown supporters as possible, so that the Blair era comes to a speedy end. Ideally, you'd like a Labour majority over all the other parties of about 60, so that Blair is damaged personally, but Labour still has the strength to help the poor and put money into public services.

How can this be achieved? First, in seats that the Lib Dems, PC or the SNP already hold (including the two won in by-elections since 2001), disgruntled Labour supporters should vote for these parties, as they may have done as an anti-Tory tactical move in the past. Second, they should vote for the best-placed of these parties in Tory-held seats to avoid any chance of an increased Labour majority. Third, in most Labour-held seats, they should continue to vote Labour, no matter how hard they have to swallow. But finally, in a small number of Labour seats, where there is a strong third party, little or no danger from the Tories, and no Labour candidate with whom they sympathise, they should cast their votes for the Lib Dems, PC or the SNP. To maximise the chances of a "third party" victory, they should avoid votes for minority parties such as the Greens or Respect.

We have identified 47 such seats. In all of them, the Tories got less than 25 per cent of the total vote in 2001 and a third party got 13 per cent or more. (For Scotland, where seat boundaries have changed, we have used estimates.) All candidates on the list are thought to be Blairites, or at least fellow-travellers. They do not include Labour MPs who voted against the government on any of the four crucial votes of 2001-2005: the Iraq war, foundation hospitals, top-up fees and the terrorism bill. Anyone with a plausible claim to being "real Labour", including several ministers, PPSs and non-rebel backbenchers, has been left off the list.

If all these seats fall, and all other seats are unchanged, Labour's majority will fall to 60. Some big names would go: Charles Clarke, John Reid, Tessa Jowell, Gerald Kaufman, for example. How-ever, Alan Milburn (Darlington) and Jack Straw (Blackburn), for example, are not included because, in their seats, the Tories have 25 per cent or more of the vote, while in Tony Blair's Sedgefield and Geoff Hoon's Ashfield, no third party has over 13 per cent.

In some of our "hit-list" seats, the Labour majority is so large that a loss seems improbable. But if enough Labour voters defect - while those in other constituencies stand firm - the message to Blair will be very clear indeed. True, there is a risk that "floating voters" (or abstentions) across the country will turf Labour out of another 30-plus seats so the party loses its majority. Even then, the probable outcome would be nothing worse than a hung parliament, in which Lib Dems and other non-Tory minorities held the balance. The likely result of that would be a swift Blair exit.

All that said, the only sure way to keep the Tories out is to vote Labour. The NS offers this guide in a spirit of public service. We do not recommend anti-Blair tactical voting - but it is better than staying at home and not voting at all.

The MPs to vote out

John Reid, Airdrie and Shotts
A minister since 1997 and Blair's leading "attack dog", who cheered loudly for Iraq war. Now, as Health Secretary, favours more use of private companies to provide NHS services.
2001 vote (%): Lab 58.2 Con 6.2 SNP 19.3

Terry Rooney, Bradford NorthBUnison member, Mormon, ex-Bradford councillor and PPS to Michael Meacher for five years. Now PPS to Keith Hill in Deputy PM's Office.
2001 vote (%): Lab 49.7 Con 24.1 LD 19.8

Wayne David, Caerphilly
Blair loyalist and former teacher. Prior to election as MP, managed to lose one of Labour's safest seats in 1999 Welsh Assembly elections.
2001 vote (%): Lab 58.2 Con 11.4 PC 21.0

Harriet Harman, Camberwell and Peckham
Once head of Liberty, now a leading moderniser. Despite losing job as social security minister, stayed loyal on the back benches, particularly on the Iraq war. Now back in government as Solicitor General.
2001 vote (%): Lab 69.6 Con 10.9 LD 13.3

Tessa Jowell, Dulwich and West Norwood
One of group who persuaded Blair to stay last summer. As Culture Secretary, introduced plans for super-casinos. Former health minister.
2001 vote (%): Lab 54.9 Con 22.7 LD 15.2

Hilary Armstrong, North-West Durham
MP's daughter. Chief Whip since 2001, dealing pugnaciously with all Labour back-bench rebellions, particularly over the Iraq war.
2001 vote (%): Lab 62.5 Con 20.9 LD 14.9

Adam Ingram, East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow
The armed forces minister and strong defender of Iraq war. Former full-time official for the Nalgo union (now Unison).
2001 vote (%): Lab 53.0 Con 9.8 SNP 23.7

Hazel Blears, Salford
Once a libertarian and an opponent of changing Clause Four, she became PPS to Alan Milburn and is now a Home Office minister.
2001 vote (%): Lab 65.1 Con 15.3 LD 16.2

Candidates who are not at present MPs:

The following are Labour prospective parliamentary candidates who, as far as we can discover, have no recent record of anti-Blairism. (Readers should make their own checks before voting against them.)

Diana Ruth Johnson, Hull North
Blairite barrister and former member of London Assembly.
2001 vote (%): Lab 57.2 Con 17.1 LD 19.7